Lockdown letter: brainstorming second order COVID-19 effects

As lockdown is released it will create a wave of second order effects. We’ve an opportunity to create a better future.

Week eight and my eighth lockdown letter recording life at this extraordinary time.

Photo by sfe-co2/iStock / Getty Images

Our local fish and chip shop reopened on Wednesday. I was at the front of the queue. It was much the same as it had been when I last visited but with some notable exceptions.

There’s a sign on the front door limiting the number of people in the shop for social distancing. A perspex shield, like you used to find in banks and post offices, has been fixed the length of the counter. Cash is out, and chip and pin is in.

We’ve had eight weeks of lockdown to begin to understand the first order impacts of COVID-19 such as the rapid shift online, home schooling and home working.

But as lockdown is released we’ll start to see second order effects. Each of these will create huge opportunities. I’ve started thinking about these this week.

Please consider this week’s letter the start point for a brainstorm. You’ll no doubt have your own ideas. Please free to add them via the comments.

Government

The digital democracy has been a long time coming - democracy will finally digitise, both in central and local government, and citizen voting.

Regional devolution - Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and many local councils in England have opted for a different response to the Government’s release of lockdown. We need local, decentralised responses to arts, culture, education and transport.

Polarisation of digital privacy - electronic communication has led to a relaxation in attitudes to legislation such as GDPR but it has also highlighted awareness. Track and trace apps will continue to fuel this debate.

Business and society

Building better business - as organisations rebuild and reinvent they’ll look beyond focus on people and planet in addition to financial return. Resilience will also become a performance indicator.

End of the nine to five week - flexible working schedules will help address physical spacing and act as a counter measure to overcrowded commutes.

Socio-economic divide - not everyone’s lockdown has been equal. It has highlighted and widened social and economic gap in society. Addressing inequality needs to be at the forefront of a societal response.

Tech response to physical separation - remote video production is connecting people via the internet with remote events such a births and funerals.

Celebration of Britain - with international travel limited there’s likely to be a rapid resurgence in British art, culture and tourism. This is a shift that was already underway as a result of Brexit.

Education

Education and training - agile education providers will benefit from digital-led democratisation of education provision but it doesn’t replace the collegiate experience of creative thinking and problem solving. The latter is a huge opportunity.

The college and university campus - the market for international students won’t recover until we learn to live with COVID-19. Teaching will shift online for all but small discussions and seminars.

Schools - classroom education needs a radical rethink. The response by schools has been mixed and it’s clear that reopening classrooms is not going to be straightforward.

Retail

Supermarkets and hyper markets - a seldom mentioned reason for empty shelves is that people are eating three meals a day at home. An effect of lockdown has been a return to meal planning and the big weekly supermarket shop.

High street online - retail is accelerating online as small business retailers and wholesalers retool their supply chain and sell direct.

Healthcare

Health and wellbeing provision modernisation - visiting a pharmacy or surgery when you’re sick makes no sense. We’re already seeing a shift to the digital delivery of mental and physical health services.

DIY doctor - COVID-19 has heighten health awareness. Personal health and wellbeing in the form of monitoring and testing are the front line in diagnosis.

Physical space

Property markets in flux - a shift away from densely populated areas as a result of social spacing will impact on the cost of commercial and residential property in major cities.

Towns and cities - urban planners in Newcastle are already thinking about an overhaul of the city centre to put people first and create more green spaces. Other cities will follow.

Rethinking workspaces - home working and neighbourhood workspaces will augment packed commutes and traditional offices.

Media

Two tales of newsprint - The news stand will be much diminished as newsprint is hit by a decline in ads and sales. The exception may be local and hyper local print that connects directly with communities.

Social media, messaging, streaming and video conferencing have become utilities during lockdown. Advertising revenue will follow where it hasn’t already.

Digital communities thrive - digital communities of interest have supplemented events, industry associations, learning and media.

Fashion and design

Fashion meets personal protection equipment (PPE). PPE is key to living with the virus. It’ll undoubtedly impact design and fashion and be incorporated into clothing and physical space.

Home and family

Craft and cooking boom - Eight weeks in lockdown has led to a middle class explosion in home cooking, craft and making. Many restaurants have followed this opportunity.

Lockdown fitness - home gyms, remote classes and remote physical trainers have become an alternative to the gym.

Travel

International travel - border quarantines mean business travel is out and international tourism will become either a luxury or long term gap year or trekking-type experience.